ARCHER / 2026–2030 INVESTOR LAB

When can the
dividend return?

Test how operating growth, Culzean recoveries and capital priorities shape Archer’s cash flow and shareholder returns.

NHG independent model USD financials / NOK per share

FORECAST NET DEBT / USDm

$525mReported Q3 net debt

$3.8bnBacklog incl. options

Early 2027Board payout review

MODEL SNAPSHOT5 November 2026 v1

Based on the NHG financial model and Archer’s 21 October trading update. Restart cases updated 11 November 2026. The 5 November Vista award is an optional overlay. Contract announcement ↗

INDICATIVE EQUITY VALUE / SHARE

NOK —

Reference date: 31 December 2026

—

First model payout—

Yield at first payout—

2027–30 distributions—NOK/share, cumulative

2030 net debt—USDm, excludes leases

02 / THE DIVIDEND PATH

From cash generation to cash returns

2027–2030 forecast

2027 vs 2028 restart

Metric	Base · 2027	2028 Restart

Where does the cash go?

FCFE, principal repayments and distributions in USDm

Year

Operating growth & equity cash flow

USDm · FCFE before debt principal and distributions

EBITDAFCFE

Deleveraging & Culzean collections

USDm · Net debt excludes lease liabilities

Net debtRecoveries

CULZEAN

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

05 / METHOD & SOURCES

Know what you are changing

Dividends are conditional

The workbook uses opening net debt divided by the current year’s forecast EBITDA, a 2.75× ceiling in the 2027 base and 2.50× in the 2028 case. Both retain a $35m cash floor and a 50% FCFE payout ceiling. These are NHG model assumptions. Actual distributions depend on the financing terms and board approval.

“Debt first” sweeps spare cash into the revolving facility before paying distributions. “Dividends first” reserves the proposed payout before the sweep, while retaining the gate, cash floor and payout ceiling. A selected restart year is the earliest permitted year, not a guarantee.

Culzean is a cash question

NHG assumes $40m of project exposure at year-end 2026. Base collects it in 2027. The 2028 Restart case collects $20m in 2027 and $10m in 2028, with a $10m write-off in 2028. The amount and timing of any actual recovery remain uncertain.

Collections release working capital. The unrecovered balance is written off below EBITDA at the end of the chosen recovery period. The model includes any write-off when calculating tax. If that period extends beyond 2030, the remaining balance stays outstanding.

Valuation and debt

The SOTP applies 4.0× Platform Operations, 5.0× Well Services, 3.25× Land Drilling, 4.0× Renewables and 4.0× negative corporate EBITDA. It deducts latest reported net debt of $525m, $57.8m lease debt and $20m minority value.

The DCF discounts 2027–30 cash flows after lease payments at 13%, with 2% terminal growth and normalised terminal capex. It deducts net debt and minorities; leases are already in cash flow. Recoveries enter the DCF once and are not separately added to SOTP.

Vista is an optional addition

The 5 November award covers DLS-156 for two years plus a one-year option. $35–40m includes the option. The overlay uses the $37.5m midpoint evenly over three years and a 21% EBITDA margin. Only two years of activity are counted unless the option is selected.

Start date, margin and mobilisation costs are assumptions. Extra mobilisation capex defaults to zero because no amount was disclosed: change it to test cash requirements. Normal revenue-linked capex and working capital still apply. Do not also add this rig to the fleet input.

Evidence & model cut-off

The dashboard recalculates the formulas from Archer_Financial_Model_2026_2030.xlsx, dated 5 November 2026. The 11 November scenario revision reconciles to the workbook for both restart cases. Analyst research informed the original NHG judgement.

Archer Q3 trading update, 21 October 2026 – Quartr ↗Reported results, backlog, debt and operating outlook.
Management on Culzean and distribution review – Quartr ↗Recovery timing and amount remain uncertain; board review early 2027.
October Land Drilling contract schedule – Quartr ↗12-rig plan; DLS-156 was not listed.
Archer Q2 2026 report – Quartr ↗Latest full statements underpinning the model’s balance sheet and financing schedules.
Vista award, 5 November 2026 – Archer ↗Official contract announcement.
Share-price reference ↗NOK 16.90 at 4 November close; FX NOK 9.2278/USD from the workbook. Neither input is live.

An annual forecast cannot determine quarterly covenant compliance or board approval. The next scheduled full Q3 report is 12 November 2026. The 2030 refinancing requirement uses opening cash; future operating cash cannot cure a February maturity gap.

When can the
dividend return?

From cash generation to cash returns

2027 vs 2028 restart

Where does the cash go?

Operating growth & equity cash flow

Deleveraging & Culzean collections

What supports the equity value?

Sum-of-the-parts bridge

Valuation sensitivity

The road to 2030

2027 segment assumptions

Know what you are changing

Dividends are conditional

Culzean is a cash question

Valuation and debt

Vista is an optional addition

Evidence & model cut-off

When can thedividend return?

From cash generation to cash returns

2027 vs 2028 restart

Where does the cash go?

Operating growth & equity cash flow

Deleveraging & Culzean collections

What supports the equity value?

Sum-of-the-parts bridge

Valuation sensitivity

The road to 2030

2027 segment assumptions

Know what you are changing

Dividends are conditional

Culzean is a cash question

Valuation and debt

Vista is an optional addition

Evidence & model cut-off

When can the
dividend return?